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Circle’s $100 billion market cap by 2030

Circle’s $100 billion market cap by 2030

Plus AMGEN and Nikkei Trade updates

June 29, 2025

Circle’s $100 billion market cap by 2030 By @Ken_CoCo 23.06.2025

Back of envelope calculation for Circle’s $100 billion market cap by 2030:

A roughly $1 Trillion USD stablecoin market (in 2030) x 40% (Circle market share, up from ~25% today)

= $400B in reserve assets

$400B reserve assets x 3% yield = $12B in interest revenue from reserve assets

$12B x 50% (revenue share with Coinbase) = $6B

$6B x 65% operating margins = $3.9B earnings. Yes, I’m assuming Circle’s operating margins would improve dramatically with more scale and assets!

Assuming a 25x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: $3.9B x 25 = ~$100B market cap by 2030

If instead, assuming a 30x P/E ratio: $3.9B x 30 = ~$120B market cap by 2030

Here’s how I got to a $968 billion USD Stablecoin market by 2030:

The USD stablecoin market, valued at around $250 billion, facilitates $15-27 trillion in annual transaction volume (depending on the source), versus Visa’s $15 trillion. Dominated by Tether (USDT, $150 billion, ~60% share) and USD Coin (USDC, $61 billion, ~24% share), with others like PayPal USD and Dai comprising ~15%.

Blockchain’s near instant settlement (1-10 seconds vs. days for SWIFT), enables high transaction velocity and reduces token needs for transactional uses (e.g., $10 trillion payments at 150x transaction velocity needs “only” a $67 billion USD stablecoin market vs. $200B at 50x), but holding demand (e.g., savings) offsets this cap.

Likely demand drivers for USD stablecoins in the coming years:

Crypto trading: Stablecoins underpin ~70% of crypto trading volume ($10-$12 trillion in 2025, global market cap $3.5 trillion). Assuming growth to $20 trillion by 2030 (CAGR ~10%-15%, driven by ETF inflows and institutional trading), with 70% stablecoin share and 100x velocity, ~$140 billion in USD stablecoins is needed ($20T × 70% ÷ 100).

Cross-border payments: Stablecoins process ~$2 trillion annually, competing with SWIFT’s $150 trillion at lower fees (<1% vs. 1-3%). Projecting $10 trillion by 2030 (CAGR ~38%, fueled by fintechs like Stripe and banks like Standard Chartered), 50x velocity requires ~$200 billion ($10T ÷ 50) in USD stablecoins.

Remittances: Stablecoins capture ~$10-20 billion of the $800 billion remittance market, with fees ~0.5% vs. 6% for traditional providers. Growth to $150-$200 billion by 2030 (driven by markets like Nigeria and India) at 50x velocity needs ~$4 billion ($200B ÷ 50).

Institutional settlement: Banks (e.g., JPMorgan’s Onyx) and firms like BlackRock use stablecoins for ~$1 trillion in settlements, requiring ~$20 billion USD stablecoins at 50x velocity. Scaling to $5 trillion by 2030 (CAGR ~38%, post-GENIUS/STABLE Acts) needs ~$100 billion ($5T ÷ 50).

Store of value: In high-inflation economies (e.g., Argentina, Venezuela), ~$50 billion in stablecoins are held, with low velocity (5x-10x). Growth to $200 billion by 2030 (CAGR ~32%) requires ~$40 billion ($200B ÷ 5).

In total, $140B USD stablecoin demand from Crypto trading + $200B (Cross-border payments) +$4B (Remittances) + $100B (Institutional settlement) + $40B (Store of value) = $484 billion USD stablecoin demand by 2030.

A 1.5x-2x multiplier for other likely unforeseen use cases (e.g., DeFi, tokenized real estate) adjusts this to $726 billion-$968 billion.

Contemplating a new long-term position in Circle, but a lot of the valuation calculation above depends on Circle achieving at least a 40% market share and its operating margins in 2030!

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