Deep dive: Uber vs. Tesla? My bet on Uber to ride the autonomous vehicle (AV) technology shift

Deep dive: Uber vs. Tesla? My bet on Uber to ride the autonomous vehicle (AV) technology shift.

By @Gentleman Hans 04.08.2025

1. Robotaxi operators like Tesla or Waymo face a core dilemma: sizing AV fleets to average demand risks unreliability during peaks (e.g., surges causing delays and eroding trust), while building its fleet size to peak demand creates excess capacity and high costs during off-peak periods (potentially 70-80% idle time). Uber logically resolves this by serving as a demand aggregator, integrating AV fleets from partners (e.g., Waymo, Lucid/Nuro for 20,000+ vehicles by 2026) into its platform. This allows AV developers to build fleet size closer to average demand, as Uber's algorithms route overflow to human drivers during peaks, ensuring reliability and adoption. During off-peak, aggregated demand fills idle AVs, boosting estimated utilization rates (potentially to 50-60% vs. 30% standalone) and ROI. Recent evidence includes Waymo's partnership yielding 250,000+ weekly rides and expansions to cities like Austin and Atlanta in 2025. This hybrid approach mitigates capex strain for AV developers while enhancing consumer trust through seamless service.

2. Ride-sharing accounts for only an estimated 1.1% of U.S. annual VMT (37 billion miles out of 3.3 trillion), leaving ~98.9% (3.2 trillion miles) in untapped segments like personal commuting (estimated 60-70%), long-haul trucking (estimated 20%), and last-mile delivery (estimated 15%). Uber extends beyond ride-sharing via its multi-modal platform: In trucking, Uber Freight partners with Aurora for AV pilots, addressing driver shortages and enabling 20-30% cost savings through hub-and-spoke models (e.g., human drivers handle complex urban legs, AVs take highways). For delivery, integrations like Serve Robotics for Eats (launched in Atlanta, June 2025) and May Mobility pilots for shuttles target urban logistics. Personal commuting benefits from hybrid AV access via the app (e.g., May Mobility pilots), allowing users to summon AVs for daily drives without ownership. Global partnerships (e.g., Baidu/WeRide for China expansion) further amplify this, positioning Uber to disrupt supply chains and public transit with low-risk, scalable AV integration.

3. Uber's ecosystem creates a defensible flywheel: Its 170M+ monthly active users (up 14% YoY as of Q1 2025) generate consistent demand, attracting AV partners (e.g., Lucid/Nuro, WeRide/Baidu) that enhance supply, which in turn boosts user retention and data for optimization. This network effect accelerates commercialization without heavy R&D ownership, reducing execution risks compared to pure-plays like Tesla (i.e., FSD delays). Valuation-wise, Uber trades at a trailing P/E of 15—far below Tesla's 180—despite 19-35% analyst upside (average target $103) and projected 20-30% EPS CAGR through 2030 via margin expansion to 60-80% as AVs cut driver costs ($70B annually).

4.  In a market where AV disruption favours platform aggregators over pure-play innovators, Uber's upside is substantial: It orchestrates ecosystems across personal commuting (hybrid AV access for daily drives), trucking (24/7 operations via Freight), and delivery (sidewalk robots for Eats), mitigating risks like regulatory delays or tech failures that plague innovators (e.g., TuSimple's layoffs, Tesla's production slips). Aggregators like Uber hedge via partnerships, enabling flexibility (e.g., fallback to humans) and scale without capex burdens. This positions Uber to potentially capture an estimated 20-30% of AV value within the broader VMT market (~$200-600B by 2030-35), with lower risks and higher margins than tech-focused peers. 

Recent Trade Updates

Meta Platforms Inc (META): +$1,730 P/L. See the full trade history and updates here.

Robinhood (HOOD): +$10,300 P/L. See the full trade history and updates here.

Become a FULL ACCESS member today to view all our Current Trades…

For more trade ideas visit the Daily Market Exchange.

Subscribe to receive more Trade Alerts.

About Us

The Daily Market Exchange is a global community where passionate investors and traders share ideas, strategies, and market insights. Stock selection is challenging, and market timing is even tougher—why tackle them alone?

Our members benefit from the collective wisdom and experience of a global network. Unsure about a stock idea? Collaborate with others to refine your research and gain confidence from their sector expertise. Struggling to find fresh trade ideas? Join the Daily Market Exchange today and access our members’ latest analysis and market strategies!

Read more about us HERE.

_{Disclaimer: The information provided here is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. All opinions, analyses, and suggestions are based on publicly available data and general observations, not personalized recommendations. Stock prices, market conditions, and financial outcomes can change rapidly—always verify data independently. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.}