How much Nvidia sales are really at risk from the latest export controls?

GPU Export Restrictions: A $28.2 Billion Revenue Risk for Nvidia? By @MikeSSS 21.04.2025

The US dropped a bombshell on April 15, slapping new licensing requirements on Nvidia’s H20 GPUs, targeting sales to China and likely affecting regions like Singapore, Malaysia, and the Middle East under upcoming AI diffusion rules (effective May 2025). Nvidia expects a $5.5 billion hit in Q1 FY2026 (February-April 2025) from canceled China orders, and there’s no guarantee licenses will come through for other markets.

So, how much revenue is really at stake? Using Nvidia’s FY2025 revenue of $130.5 billion, here’s my estimated breakdown of the regional impacts:

China: Contributes $17.11 billion to Nvidia’s total sales, with 80% ($13.68 billion) from data centers. The H20 ban likely wipes out this entire segment. Risk: $13.68 billion.

Singapore: A hefty $23.7 billion market for Nvidia, with $19 billion from data centers. As a US ally, Singapore might face partial restrictions (e.g., licensing delays), so I assume 50% of data center revenue is at risk. Risk: $9.5 billion.

Other Asia-Pacific & Middle East: Countries like Malaysia, India, UAE, and Israel (part of the $15.4 billion “Other Countries” category, estimated at $7.7 billion for these regions) face similar AI diffusion rules. I estimate $6.2 billion from data centers, with 50% at risk. Risk: $3.1 billion.

Taiwan & Europe: Taiwan ($15.6 billion) isn’t directly hit, but I factored in a 10% ripple effect ($1.3 billion). Europe, estimated at $7.7 billion, sees a minor 10% hit ($0.6 billion) from market uncertainty.

Total Revenue at Risk: $13.68B (China) + $9.5B (Singapore) + $3.1B (Other Asia-Pacific/Middle East) + $1.3B (Taiwan) + $0.6B (Europe) = $28.2 billion, or 21.6% of Nvidia’s FY2025 revenue.

 To be realistic, I assume Nvidia loses only 50% of this—$14.1 billion—since they might secure some licenses or redirect sales.

Now, how does this revenue hit affects Nvidia’s EPS for FY2026 (ending January 2026), which is what investors will start to focus…

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Wall Street is pumping Netflix! Trading NFLX vs. UMG? By @Willie 007 18.04.2025

Netflix: Recession-Resistant but Fully Priced?

Netflix’s business model screams durability, even in tough economic times. Its recurring subscription revenue provides a stable cash flow, cushioning it against consumer spending slowdowns. With plans ranging from $7.99 to $24.99, Netflix offers unmatched value—hours of entertainment at a fraction of the cost of movie tickets or live events. If a recession hits, its ad-supported tier, now over 55% of sign-ups in key markets, can capture users downgrading from premium plans, maintaining revenue momentum.

The market may still be underpricing Netflix’s upside. Its push into live sports (e.g., NFL games, WWE’s Monday Night Raw) and potential bundling with other services enhance its “customer stickiness”.

The tape doesn’t lie, don’t fight it. Netflix’s relative outperformance against tech peers signals strong momentum.

Yet, with everyone on Wall St already bullish, it feels late to join the party!

Enter Universal Music Group (UMG), the world’s largest music company, with fundamentals echoing…

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A near-term market bounce is likely By @Sammy Theeee 6.04.2025

US import tariffs are 100% here to stay. Recent interviews with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made it clear that onshoring manufacturing back to the US is a top, strategic goal for the US now.

Don’t see this trade war resolving soon. Quick deals could perhaps be made with smaller economies such as Vietnam, where bilateral negotiations appear to be taking place already. However, China, Europe, Canada, which are the largest…

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_{Disclaimer: The information provided here is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. All opinions, analyses, and suggestions are based on publicly available data and general observations, not personalized recommendations. Stock prices, market conditions, and financial outcomes can change rapidly—always verify data independently. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.}