Trade Alert

FX Trade: USD/JPY

_{Posted by Club Member MikeSSS 15.8.23}

- Japanese Yen at 145.5 and Chinese Yuan at 7.25 are now near levels where the BoJ and PBOC may intervene

- Both central banks are large holders of US treasuries, which they may sell to support their respective currencies. This may already be happening, as it would explain the rise in US real yields over the past couple of weeks.

- BoJ stepped in to buy the Yen at 145 in September 2022. HSBC believes that the Japanese Ministry of Finance will “start pushing back in the 145-148 range” same as they did in 2022.

- If the BoJ and/or PBOC steps in to support their currencies, I think there could be more downward pressure on US T-bills.

- CNBC recently reported that Pershing Square is also shorting 30-year US treasuries, citing concerns that core inflation may be sticky at around 3% which should warrant long dated yields being closer to 5.5%

- The way I see it, there’s potentially two interesting tactical trades here: 1. Long Yen; 2. Short long-dated US Treasuries

#Yen #CNY #US T-Bills #New Ideas

To follow the discussion on USD/JPY and for more trade ideas visit the Daily Market Exchange.

Recent posts from the Daily Market Exchange:

1. “Market leadership shifting from Mega Cap Tech to Energy?” 

   Like many here, I have also been selling my tech stocks as the tech rally fades. Energy stocks appear to be the one bright spot in the market and continues to show relative strength even as the broader markets retreat over the past couple of weeks.

   Click here to continue reading

Subscribe to receive more Trade Alerts.

About Us

The Daily Market Exchange is a global investment network.

It is a forum for elite market participants to exchange investment ideas and market views.

It is a platform for investors to collaborate and a hub for traders to share strategies.

Stock selection is hard, market timing harder so. Why do it alone?

Our members benefit from the network’s collective market insight and experience.

Have a stock idea, but not confident with your research to pull the trigger? Join our network and discuss your investment thesis with other members. Benefit from their sector experience and perspectives!

Struggling to find new investment ideas for your portfolio? Join our network and tap into our members’ latest ideas and research!